TechFX Traders analysis overview
Drivers of foreign exchange (FX) markets range from economic factors, such as interest rates and inflation, to market factors, including sentiment and large deals. It’s a complex world for which price is one of the most reliable and consistent things to watch. In short, technical analysis is the study of price (and volume) as a guide to future price movements.
TECHFX TRADERS uses a blend of technical analysis styles developed from years of trading futures and FX. Elliott Wave Analysis is supported by Candlestick Patterns, RSIs, Stochastics, MACD, Moving Averages as well as Trend Lines. While operating within an Elliott Wave framework we concede Elliott Wave Theory can be complex and subjective. Therefore, we look only for the clearest wave counts and structures that present the strongest trade set-ups. To further enhance the chances of finding high probability set-ups we also rely heavily on correlation analysis.
Intermarket analysis garners less attention than it should in private trader forums, given it has been popular with bank traders for years. One of the more recognisable examples of intermarket/correlation analysis is in the relationship between currencies, for instance, when EURUSD goes up, USDCHF goes down. However, our focus is on how foreign exchange is effected by factors and markets outside the currency market, such as how the movement in interest rate differentials, commodities or whether we are in a high volatility or low volatility regime can strongly influence movements in currency markets.
In many respects the use of intermarket analysis is our way of incorporating fundamental analysis into our markets and trading overview. One of our key beliefs is that technical analysis combined with a supportive fundamental backdrop leads to superior trading results.
Past Weekly Technical FX Report Extracts
USDJPY rallied over 400 pips to 113.00 soon after this update.
(From 23/04/17 report)
Short Term View: Technically, a lot of reasons to be bullish USDJPY at current levels including support in the form of Wave Equality at 108.42 (WA=WC) as well as the 50% fibo retracement at 108.75 and the WI high at 107.50.
Looking to be a buyer early this week, pending market-friendly French election results.
Resistance: 110.00, 110.50/60, 111.60
Support: 108.60/40, 108.10/00, 107.50
GBPUSD rallied over 200 pips post this report and in total over 500 pips from the original bullish call made on April 11.
(From 23/04/17 report)
Short Term View: After maintaining a bullish short term bias in recent weeks, a clean ABC structure allowed a low-risk, long trade in GBPUSD from the 1.2400 region (see Twitter updates of April 11 and 12).
Ahead of the French election, I have squared up all longs for the weekend. However as my preference is for further gains in the short term (towards 1.3000/1.3200), I will be looking to re-establish longs Monday morning.
Resistance: 1.2905, 1.3000/20, 1.3060
Support: 1.2755/40, 1.2705/00, 1.2615
AUDCAD soon after fell to a low of .9923 resulting in a profitable trade outcome.
(From 09/04/17 report)
Short Term View: Rejection from range highs 1.0300/1.0400 followed by a break down through 1.0100 appears to have triggered a head and shoulders topping pattern.
As per the recent Twitter updates, with crude oil rebounding and strong Canadian jobs numbers, looking to run shorts with stops now placed above 1.0130. Downside targets are 1.000/.9980 and then .9900.
Resistance: 1.0100, 1.0120/30, 1.0155
Support: 1.0025/20, 1.0000, .9980
EURAUD has since rallied over 900 pips to 1.4910.
(From 05/03/17 report)
Short Term View: Initial target of 1.4000 almost reached. Buy dips to 1.3900/50 on the view the current rally can extend towards 1.4100/50.
A close above 1.4500 is required to provide an outright bullish backdrop.
Resistance: 1.4000/25, 1.4075/90, 1.4120/50.
Support: 1.3900, 1.3850/30, 1.3750
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.